<html><head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-16"> </head> <body background="formulas.gif" bgcolor="#CCCCCC" text="#000099"> <font face="Arial" size="3"><b> <u> :</u><p>                : </p><p> <table border="3" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td><b>1 </b></td> <td><b>2 </b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><center></center></td> <td><center></center></td> </tr> <tr> <td><center></center></td> <td><center></center></td> </tr> <tr> <td><center></center></td> <td><center></center></td> </tr> <tr> <td><center></center></td> <td><center></center></td> </tr> </tbody></table></p><p>             ,        . <br>            ,         1/3. </p><p>              .      .                              ,           . </p><p>                                : <br> 1 =  "            "   "     " <br> 2 =  ""   "      " <br> 3 =  "      "   "     " <br> 4 =  ""   "          " </p><p>         4                . : <br>   1  2             1/3. <br>   3  4              1/2 (      ). <br>   1  2      3  4. </p><p>          . </p><p>     2  , :                  .        ; </p><p>   .       : <br> 2 =            <br>  =    <br>  =           <br>  =           <br>  =    </p><p>  ()        .              ,  () = () = () = () = 1/4. </p><p>       : <br>      2       ; </p><p>      : <br> (|2) = ( )" 2) / (2) </p><p>     . <br>    )" 2          2.              2.        2. <br>   )" 2 =             ( )" 2) = () = 1/4 </p><p>    (2)  : <br> 1)    (2) = 1 <br> 2)    (2) = 1 <br> 3)    (2) = 1 <br> 4)    (2) = 0 <br>  : (2) = (1/4) * 1 + (1/4) * 1 + (1/4) * 1 + (1/4) * 0 = 3/4. </p><p>  : (|2) = (1/4) / (3/4) = 1/3 </p><p>     1                ()      .            1/3. </p><p>        2      4, :                      .        ; </p><p>    2     4  :               . </p><p>            : ( )" 4) = () = 1/4 </p><p>     (4)   : <br> 1)    (4) = 1 <br> 2)    (4) = 1/2 <br> 3)    (4) = 1/2 <br> 4)    (4) = 0 </p><p>               2  3             ()  ,                  .                  ,         ,   (4)   2  3   1/2. </p><p>  : (4) = (1/4) * 1 + (1/4) * (1/2) + (1/4) * (1/2) + (1/4) * 0 = 1/2 </p><p>  : (|4) = (1/4) / (1/2) = 1/2 </p><p>          3    . </p><p>        .                   .         ; <br>                        .        1/2,          . <br>        ,         :                             . <br>     ( ..                     )                             .                               2                   1/3. <p>        Bayes,        :  p           ,         ,       .          ,        f(p) = 1/(2p+1). <br>             .     p    0  1      f(p)    1/3  1. <p> <img src="agorokoritsa-diagramma.png"> </p><p><i><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> "Discovery consists of seeing what everyone else has seen but think what no one else has thought." <br>--Albert Szent-Gyorgyi</font></i></p><p> <a href="https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=9192861170275242349&amp;postID=6579935065098378335&amp;isPopup=true">  </a></p> <hr size="5"> <p align="center"><a href="piuanothtvn-lymenoi.html"><img src="back.gif" height="32" width="32"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></a></p> </font></body></html>